Mid to long-term forecast for the Lower Mekong River Basin, methodology and implementation plan

General information

Client: Mekong River Commission in collaboration with GIZ
Contractor: Dr. Hubert Lohr as lead consultant, SYDRO as sub-consultant
Location: Phnom Penh; Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand, Vietnam
Project duration: 01/2016 - 05/2016
Key characteristics: Long-range streamflow forecasting, modelling, flood management

Project description

Since 2005, the Mekong River Committee runs an operational Regional Flood Management and Mitigation Centre. The MRC decided to engage in long-range streamflow forecast for the Lower Mekong River Basin. The project aims at identifying and testing methods for long-range streamflow forecasts based on precipitation prediction with numerical weather models, satellite and remote sensing and/or stochastic streamflow generation for the Lower Mekong Basin. Based on the test results a concept for long-range streamflow forecast was determined. The evaluation resulted in the selection of dynamic weather forecast models in combination with stochastic streamflow generation and rainfall-runoff models. Already existing tools and the software framework were considered in the evaluation process. Important aspects were the identification of users which are considered as beneficiaries and their requirements of extended streamflow forecasts. This included the identification of possible lead time and frequency of dissemination based on the necessity in which users require this information. The implementation is considered under the software framework of FEWS (Deltares).


  • Review of pertinent documents
  • Pre-selection of methods suitable to be implemented in the framework of the MRC flood forecasting centre
  • Analysing the utilisation of historical data approach versus numerical weather forecast and their advantages and disadvantages
  • Implementation under the software framework of FEWS (Deltares) including test runs for selected sub-basins
  • Consultation workshop with representatives from member countries Lao PDR, Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia


  • Implementation in software framework
  • Integrated hydrological modeling
  • Identifying methods for long-range streamflow forecasts 
  • Scenario management
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